Right now, it may not seem0 like a fair fight. In one corner, you have Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), currently the market’s fifth most valuable company, weighing in with a market cap of $2.8 tiillion. In the other corner, you have Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) and recent IPO Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX). They’re slightly smaller than Amazon, but when the two Elon Musk companies are combined, they add up to a market cap of $3.3 trillion.
If we use enterprise value rather than market cap, accounting for each side’s net debt position, the valuation gap narrows slightly. Amazon, at $2.9 trillion, still falls short of Tesla and SpaceX, at $3.2 trillion. The math is likely to be easier by 2030, with many market pros expecting Tesla and SpaceX to merge into a single entity well before then. But I believe that e-commerce pioneer Amazon will be worth more than even a pairing of Tesla and SpaceX by 2030.
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Agree? Disagree? Hear me out.
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Amazon in 2026
Right now, Amazon stock is the steadier and more profitable investment. It’s growing its business faster than Tesla but slower than SpaceX. Fueled by its high-margin, fast-growing Amazon Web Services (AWS) cloud-hosting business, overall profitability is expanding on accelerating revenue growth.
Net sales climbed 20% for Amazon’s latest quarter. That may not seem like much, but it’s Amazon’s strongest year-over-year gain in five years. Its flagship e-commerce business is picking up, rising 16% in North America in its latest quarter. However, it’s the 37% jump at AWS that’s turning heads. AWS generated just 21% of Amazon’s top-line results in the second quarter, but it delivered 60% of the operating income.
Analysts see Amazon generating $133 billion in net income on net sales of $828 billion this year. Even with Amazon cutting big checks to bankroll its AI initiatives, it’s also a major beneficiary of the boom as a leading hosting platform. It’s trading at a reasonable 21 times this year’s projected earnings. The multiple creeps closer to 25 when looking ahead to next year, as capex picks up to stay ahead of the pack in the AI race.
Tesla and SpaceX in 2026
Tesla and SpaceX may seem to be passing ships — spaceships, if you will — these days. Tesla’s revenue declined last year as car sales suffered amid a broader slowdown in electric vehicles. The end of the federal tax credits and lackluster Cybertruck sales didn’t help. Business has bounced back in 2026, with back-to-back quarters of double-digit revenue growth, but profitability has contracted.
SpaceX has been public for a little more than two months. It has launched, and it has crashed. Today, it’s barely above its IPO price of $135 per share. Just don’t call SpaceX stock boring. It’s the speedster of the three companies here. Revenue has risen roughly 33% in the past two years. Between Starlink and the push for reusable rockets, it will probably remain the speedster.
Tesla and SpaceX should combine to produce $5 billion in earnings on $151 billion in revenue this year. Looking back, the valuation argument favors Amazon. It’s generating a double-digit net margin, compared with just 3% for the one-two punch of Tesla and SpaceX. Amazon’s projected profit is nearly equal to the other entity’s revenue. However, investing for the future requires a longer look. Let’s see how these investments will be faring four years from now.
Here comes 2030
A lot will happen over the next few years. The valuation gap will narrow as Tesla and SpaceX grow their profitability and revenue much faster than Amazon, particularly SpaceX, if Wall Street’s ambitious projections pan out.
Amazon will be in good shape four years from now. The consensus estimates call for $215 billion in net income on $1.38 trillion in net sales in 2030, representing increases of 62% and 66%, respectively. It may seem disappointing to see the top line outpace the bottom line, but Amazon has carved out a cozy living over the long haul by trouncing profit targets.
Tesla and SpaceX should combine to generate a total of $151 billion in net income on $636 billion in revenue, based on 2030 forecasts. Here’s where the tables turn. It’s Tesla with SpaceX generating the wider net margin in 2030, propelled by SpaceX’s business model of high-margin satellite-based connectivity and its cost-effective future rockets.
The decision gets a bit harder with 2030 goggles on, but I’m sticking with Amazon. It will still be more profitable and generate double the revenue of the alternative. Tesla and SpaceX will be growing faster — and if the companies inevitably merge, the synergies may make their financials even more impressive. However, much more can go wrong with Tesla and SpaceX than with Amazon’s more reliable trajectory. Amazon should be worth more in 2030.
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Rick Munarriz has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon and Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
