Historian and investor Joseph Moore has a way of reframing market history that makes long-time investors blink. On a recent Motley Fool Money appearance discussing his book How to Get Rich in American History: 300 Years of Financial Advice That Worked (and Didn’t), Moore drew a line through American equity returns at an unlikely cultural marker: the release of Michael Jackson’s Thriller.
Quick Read
-
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) paid $0.32–$0.41 per quarter in 1999–2000, with the most recent payment of $1.797 in March 2026, while price gains of 262.53% over the past decade now dominate total returns, signaling a fundamental regime shift where equity returns flow from price appreciation rather than dividends.
-
Since the early 1980s when the Federal Reserve Funds rate peaked near 20%, declining interest rates and tax-favored buybacks transformed the definition of a good stock from dividend yield to capital appreciation, making modern equity investors purchasers of future price appreciation rather than future corporate profits.
-
The analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 stocks and SPDR S&P 500 ETF wasn’t one of them. Get them here FREE.
His claim: “From the George Washington administration until Michael Jackson’s Thriller album, dividends were 90-something percent of returns and price movement was very little of the gain. And since then I think well over 70% of our investment returns come not from dividends, but from price elevation.”
Why The Regime Shifted
The timing tracks with macro history. By 1982, the Fed Funds rate had peaked near 20% in June 1982, and the subsequent multi-decade decline in interest rates revalued every cash flow on earth. As inflation broke, capital chased growth, buybacks gained tax-favored status after 1982, and the cultural definition of a “good stock” migrated from yield to appreciation.
The analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 stocks and SPDR S&P 500 ETF wasn’t one of them. Get them here FREE.
The fingerprints of that shift sit inside the S&P 500 itself. SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) paid roughly $0.32 to $0.41 per quarter in 1999 and 2000, and the most recent payment was $1.796999 in March 2026. Dividends have grown substantially. Price has grown more. SPY’s ten-year price change is 262.53%, with the ETF closing at $747.21 on May 13, 2026. Yield is the side dish now.
Buying Future Buyers, Not Future Profits
Moore’s sharpest framing is what he believes the modern investor is actually purchasing. In his telling, today’s equity buyer is acquiring “a share of future buyers at today’s prices,” rather than “a share of future profits at today’s prices.” That reframing has consequences. It implies multiple expansion, sentiment, and flows do more work than coupon-like cash returns ever did in the 19th century.
